Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4894
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 4894 · HOU → HRL
departs 3:35 PM CT · arrives 4:51 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 27%
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 32%
Tue 11/3 34%
Wed 11/4 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at HRL more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HRL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at HRL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HRL?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↓
HRL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HRL (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.