Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4895
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 4895 · HOU → ELP
departs 8:09 AM CT · arrives 9:10 AM MT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/29 6%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 11%
Sun 11/1 12%
Mon 11/2 12%
Tue 11/3 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
HOU is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 8,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
ELP (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.