Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4918
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 4918 · SAN → SJC
departs 1:30 PM PT · arrives 3:04 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 35%
Mon 11/2 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.