Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4940
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 4940 · SJC → LAX
departs 5:56 PM PT · arrives 7:18 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 26%
Mon 11/2 38%
Tue 11/3 21%
Wed 11/4 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±7 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.