Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4949
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 4949 · PHX → MCI
departs 6:57 PM MT · arrives 11:33 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 33%
Sun 11/1 36%
Mon 11/2 40%
Tue 11/3 34%
Wed 11/4 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±7 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
66%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
0.7 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.71 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.