Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4957
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 4957 · SAN → SMF
departs 12:34 PM PT · arrives 2:16 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 43%
Mon 11/2 30%
Tue 11/3 29%
Wed 11/4 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.