Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4998
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 4998 · SAN → HNL
departs 9:37 AM PT · arrives 12:54 PM HT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Thu 10/29 31%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 25%
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 35%
Tue 11/3 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
9am departures from SAN are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.