Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 5014
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Today
WN 5014 · PHX → LAX
departs 2:44 PM MT · arrives 4:11 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.06 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.