Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 527
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 527 · AUS → OKC
departs 2:30 PM CT · arrives 3:57 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 33%
Tue 11/3 34%
Wed 11/4 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at OKC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OKC?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at OKC that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Arrivals into OKC at that hour are usually not late
↓
AUS is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 467 ft Visibility 4.66667 mi Precip 0.14 in
OKC (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.57 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.