Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 533
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 533 · BNA → DAL
departs 9:30 PM CT · arrives 11:24 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 28%
Tue 11/3 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±5 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,767 ft Visibility 8.33333 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.