WN 542 · BUR → SMF

took off 7:15 PM PT · landed 8:13 PM PT (scheduled 5:58 PM PT → 7:27 PM PT)

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SMF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR

↑ Fridays in October are usually busier than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BUR (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.02 in

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 542 · BUR → SMF

Odds over time

How late did it get to SMF?