Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 551
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 551 · COS → SAN
departs 10:49 AM MT · arrives 12:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave COS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at COS
↓
10am departures from COS are usually not late
Weather at each end
COS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.