Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 554
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 554 · BNA → ECP
departs 7:21 PM CT · arrives 8:52 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 14%
Mon 11/2 23%
Tue 11/3 25%
Wed 11/4 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at ECP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ECP?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
ECP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ECP (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.