Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 556
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 556 · EUG → SAN
departs 1:09 PM PT · arrives 3:34 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 25%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 13%
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave EUG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at EUG that day
Weather at each end
EUG (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.