WN 578 · TPA → SJU

took off 11:16 PM ET · expected to land 1:59 AM AT (scheduled 8:11 PM ET → 11:14 PM AT)

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SJU?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
100%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SJU at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at TPA that day

↓ TPA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJU (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 578 · TPA → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?