Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 587
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 587 · CUN → AUS
departs 11:39 AM EST · arrives 2:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Thu 10/29 26%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 12%
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 16%
Tue 11/3 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave CUN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at CUN
↑
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
CUN (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.