Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 631
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 631 · SJD → SNA
departs 12:59 PM MST · arrives 3:32 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 23%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 26%
Tue 11/3 22%
Wed 11/4 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SJD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SNA at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
SJD usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SJD (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
SNA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.