Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 706
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 706 · BNA → SAN
departs 2:41 PM CT · arrives 4:54 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/29 31%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 27%
Sun 11/1 39%
Mon 11/2 34%
Tue 11/3 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.