WN 713 · BNA → SAT

took off 10:59 PM CT · expected to land 12:50 AM CT (scheduled 10:19 PM CT → 12:48 AM CT)

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

LIVE

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling471 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.57 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 713 · BNA → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?