Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 733
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 733 · RDU → BNA
departs 4:18 PM ET · arrives 5:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 34%
Mon 11/2 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from RDU are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.