Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 799
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 799 · MDW → HOU
departs 11:46 AM CT · arrives 2:17 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↑
11am departures from MDW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 7,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.