Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 808
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 808 · OAK → HNL
departs 11:20 AM PT · arrives 1:53 PM HT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Thu 10/29 24%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 34%
Mon 11/2 29%
Tue 11/3 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into HNL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.