Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 866
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 866 · MCI → DEN
departs 12:15 PM CT · arrives 1:03 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/29 12%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 16%
Tue 11/3 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.05 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.