Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 8801 LANDED 5:16 PM MT, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 30 Today

WN 8801 · SMF → TUS

took off 3:39 PM PT · landed 5:16 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TUS that day

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ TUS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

TUS (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 8801 · SMF → TUS

Odds over time