Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 881
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 881 · SJD → HOU
departs 1:29 PM MST · arrives 6:07 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Thu 10/29 23%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 24%
Tue 11/3 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SJD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJD
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↓
SJD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SJD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.