Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 9004 LANDED 5:25 PM PT, ~16 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 30 Yesterday

WN 9004 · LAS → SAN

took off 4:41 PM PT · landed 5:25 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

83% chance · ±0 pts +42 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 4pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Other factors

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

SAN (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 9004 · LAS → SAN

Odds over time