WN 932 · SMF → DEN

departs 2:38 PM PT · arrives 6:04 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ DEN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 932 · SMF → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?