Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 951
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 951 · LAS → TUS
departs 3:12 PM PT · arrives 4:41 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 32%
Mon 11/2 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±4 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at TUS that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.