WS 1101 · PHX → YEG

departs 7:51 PM MT · arrives 12:18 AM MDT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at YEG more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YEG?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.7 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ 7pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Arrivals into YEG at that hour are usually not late

↓ YEG usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.82 in

YEG (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WS 1101 · PHX → YEG

Odds over time

How late will it get to YEG?