WS 1429 · BNA → YYC

departs 5:16 PM CT · arrives 8:46 PM MDT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at YYC more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYC?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at YYC that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 5pm departures from BNA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↓ YYC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YYC (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WS 1429 · BNA → YYC

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYC?