WS 1501 · SFO → YYC

departs 5:36 PM PT · arrives 9:17 PM MDT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at YYC more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYC?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at YYC that day

↑ 5pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ YYC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YYC (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WS 1501 · SFO → YYC

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYC?