Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 1703
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
Y4 1703 · ORD → GDL
departs 2:58 AM CT · arrives 6:02 AM CST
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 10/28 13%
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at GDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GDL?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Other factors
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GDL
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GDL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.