Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 1713
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
Y4 1713 · LAX → GDL
departs 12:01 PM PT · arrives 4:22 PM CST
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 10/28 15%
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at GDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GDL?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GDL
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GDL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.