Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 1822
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
Y4 1822 · GDL → SJC
departs 12:42 PM CST · arrives 3:36 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 10/28 10%
Thu 10/29 10%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 13%
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GDL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
Weather at each end
GDL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 10,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.