Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 731
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
Y4 731 · IAH → MEX
departs 8:54 PM CT · arrives 10:13 PM CST
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/29 13%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 16%
Tue 11/3 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEX?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Y4's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MEX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.