Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 741
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
Y4 741 · LAS → MEX
departs 5:03 PM PT · arrives 9:52 PM CST
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 14%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at MEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MEX?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Y4's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MEX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.