Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 7771
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
Y4 7771 · MDW → MLM
departs 2:27 PM CT · arrives 5:27 PM CST
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Wed 10/28 8%
Thu 10/29 12%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 10%
Mon 11/2 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at MLM more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MLM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at MLM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MLM?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
2pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MLM
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MLM (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.