Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 7849
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
Y4 7849 · LAX → OAX
departs 2:32 PM PT · arrives 7:45 PM CST
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAX more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at OAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAX?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.