Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 4017 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

YV 4017 · MAF → IAH

departs 7:14 PM CT · arrives 8:54 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at MAF that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ MAF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MAF (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.72 in

IAH (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4017 · MAF → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?