Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 4043 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

YV 4043 · IAH → SAT

departs 4:23 PM CT · arrives 5:32 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ IAH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4043 · IAH → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?