Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 4053 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

YV 4053 · SAT → IAH

departs 7:19 PM CT · arrives 8:30 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi forecast at SAT that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.66667 mi Precip0.11 in

IAH (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4053 · SAT → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?