Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6111 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

YV 6111 · IAH → SAV

departs 5:57 PM CT · arrives 9:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at SAV more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAV?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAV

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAV (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6111 · IAH → SAV

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAV?