Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6117 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

YV 6117 · DSM → IAH

departs 3:05 PM CT · arrives 5:40 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from DSM are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↓ DSM usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

DSM (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.29 in

IAH (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6117 · DSM → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?