Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6233 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

YV 6233 · IAH → MAF

departs 4:31 PM CT · arrives 6:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MAF?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at MAF that day

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ IAH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MAF (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.72 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6233 · IAH → MAF

Odds over time

How late will it get to MAF?