Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6265 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

YV 6265 · IAH → BTR

departs 8:01 PM CT · arrives 9:19 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at BTR more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BTR?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ IAH usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BTR

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

BTR (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6265 · IAH → BTR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BTR?