YV 6302 · IAH → XNA

departs 6:16 PM CT · arrives 8:02 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to XNA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

XNA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6302 · IAH → XNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to XNA?