Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3416
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 3416 · CHS → EWR
departs 7:26 PM ET · arrives 9:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29 34%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave CHS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CHS
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
CHS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.