YX 3456 · PIT → EWR

departs 12:53 PM ET · arrives 2:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT

↓ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

Weather at each end

PIT (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3456 · PIT → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?