Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3460
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 3460 · YYZ → EWR
departs 7:00 PM EDT · arrives 8:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29 37%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 43%
Sun 11/1 48%
Mon 11/2 30%
Tue 11/3 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±12 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
YYZ (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.