YX 3472 · ORF → EWR

took off 6:08 AM ET · expected to land 7:07 AM ET (scheduled 5:57 AM ET → 7:36 AM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ ORF is prone to delays

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from ORF are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.75 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3472 · ORF → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?